Srinagar: As the dust settles on the shocking PDP victory in the Budgam Assembly by-election last week – ending nearly five decades of National Conference (NC) dominance in the Shia-majority constituency – all eyes are now on Srinagar Lok Sabha MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi.
The influential Shia leader and three-time former Budgam MLA, whose pointed silence during the campaign is widely credited with tipping the scales against his own party, finds himself at a crossroads in Jammu & Kashmir politics.
Ruhullah’s refusal to campaign for NC candidate Aga Syed Mehmood Al-Mosavi – despite family ties and party loyalty – stemmed from deep frustrations over the Omar Abdullah-led government’s perceived failure to deliver on key promises, including a stronger push for restoration of Jammu & Kashmir’s special status and addressing grassroots grievances like reservations and development. In the aftermath, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah publicly accused Ruhullah of committing “political suicide” by indirectly aiding the opposition PDP, whose candidate Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi won by a margin of over 4,400 votes.
Political observers in the Valley are buzzing with theories about Ruhullah’s next move. Having already clashed with NC leadership on multiple fronts – from protesting reservation policies alongside opposition figures to openly criticizing the party’s “pragmatic” approach towards New Delhi – many believe reconciliation within the NC fold looks increasingly unlikely.
“If Aga Ruhullah decides to part ways with the National Conference, where does he go?” asked a senior Srinagar-based analyst. “He has opposed the PDP in the past for its historical alliances and what he sees as betrayals of the people’s mandate. He has been equally vocal against the Congress and other regional players perceived as compromising on core Kashmiri issues.”
One scenario gaining traction is the possibility of Ruhullah floating his own political outfit. The MP, known for his fiery speeches advocating non-sectarian, rights-based politics post the 2019 abrogation of Article 370, commands significant grassroots support, particularly among youth disillusioned with mainstream parties.
Supporters point to massive crowds that greeted him in Budgam after the bypoll results as evidence of his personal popularity transcending party lines.
However, detractors – including some within rival camps – warn that any new party led by Ruhullah, a prominent figure from the influential Aga family and a respected Shia cleric, risks being branded as a “Shia party.” Budgam’s electorate, while Shia-dominated, has historically voted along broader regional and ideological lines under the NC umbrella.
Critics argue that in Jammu & Kashmir’s polarized landscape, sectarian labeling could confine such a formation to limited pockets, potentially restricting it to just one or two seats in future Assembly elections – primarily in central Kashmir’s Shia-heavy areas.
“Aga Sahib’s strength has always been his appeal beyond community lines – Sunnis voted overwhelmingly for him in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls,” noted a local journalist. “But if he goes independent, opponents will play the sectarian card aggressively, just as they do with any leader from a minority community stepping out alone.”
Ruhullah has remained tight-lipped on his plans, with his office issuing only brief statements emphasizing his commitment to “people’s rights” over party politics. In a recent public address in Budgam, he reiterated that his struggle is “bigger than Assembly seats” and called for introspection within the NC, stopping short of announcing any breakaway.
As Jammu & Kashmir heads into a period of political flux – with statehood restoration still uncertain and anti-incumbency brewing against the NC-Congress alliance – Ruhullah’s decision could reshape alliances in the Valley. For now, the question echoing across tea stalls in Budgam and Srinagar remains: Stay and fight within the NC, reconcile quietly, or chart a bold new path that risks everything he’s built?
Party sources indicate behind-the-scenes efforts to mend fences, but with trust eroded on both sides, the coming weeks may reveal whether Kashmir’s most outspoken MP chooses loyalty, rebellion, or reinvention.
