Srinagar: With the Rajya Sabha elections announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on Wednesday, the political arithmetic in the newly constituted Jammu & Kashmir Legislative Assembly indicates a clear advantage for the National Conference-Congress alliance, which is expected to secure three of the four available seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), meanwhile, is comfortably positioned to claim one seat.

According to a notification issued by the poll body on Wednesday, as per KNO, three separate elections will be held to fill the four vacant seats-one election each for the first two seats, and a combined election for the remaining two.

The Jammu & Kashmir Assembly comprises 90 seats, of which two-Budgam and Nagrota-are currently vacant. This brings the effective strength of the House to 88, including the seat held by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLA Mehraj Malik, who is currently under detention under the Public Safety Act (PSA).

The combined strength of the NC, Congress, CPI(M), and independent MLAs supporting the alliance stands at 53-down from 54 following Mehraj Malik’s withdrawal of support to the Omar Abdullah-led government. The alliance includes 41 MLAs from NC, six from Congress, five independents, and one from CPI (M).

The BJP holds 28 seats. In addition, six MLAs from smaller Kashmir-based parties and independents form a non-BJP opposition bloc in the House. These members maintain a neutral stance, distancing themselves from both the treasury benches and the BJP. This group includes three MLAs from the PDP, one from the PC, and two independents-Shabir Kullay (MLA Shopian) and Sheikh Khursheed, who is considered independent as his party is not registered with the Election Commission of India. With Mehraj Malik added to this bloc, the total rises to seven.

Based on current numbers, the NC-led alliance is expected to win the first two seats-each to be decided through separate elections-given its 53-member strength compared to BJP’s 28. These two seats could go uncontested if the BJP decides not to field candidates.

For the third and fourth seats, which will be decided through a combined election, voting will take place only if the NC-led alliance chooses to contest the fourth seat.

The NC-led alliance is projected to secure 29 first-preference votes for the third seat, leaving it with 24 second-preference votes for the fourth seat. The BJP, with 28 votes, is favored to win the fourth seat.

The six MLAs from PDP, PC, and independents are expected to play a minimal role in the elections. They have been vocal critics of both NC and BJP.

There are also chances of cross-voting, considering that seven independent MLAs-five from the ruling alliance and two from the opposition-are not required to show their marked ballot papers to any authorized agent.

Mehraj Malik, who is in detention under the Public Safety Act (PSA), is eligible to vote in the Rajya Sabha elections. Section 62(5) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, does not bar a person from voting if they are under preventive detention. It only prohibits voting by individuals confined in prison or in lawful police custody-whether serving a sentence or otherwise.

Who are frontrunners for party tickets?

Sources in National Conference disclosed that Dr. Farooq Abdullah and Sajad Kichloo are the frontrunners for the party ticket.

The Congress is also likely to seek one seat out of the three that the alliance is poised to win. The grand old party could field a candidate from mainland Jammu or a sitting MLA from South Kashmir, if the NC concedes a seat to it.

If the NC decides to contest the fourth seat, it may field a young face from South Kashmir to maintain its grip in the region, where it won 10 out of 16 seats in the last election.

The BJP is expected to keep its cards close to its chest until the last moment. It could field either a former MLA or a new face, given its reputation for springing surprises. Sunil Kumar Sharma, the BJP’s tactician who played a crucial role in the party’s victories during the last Assembly elections across the entire Chenab Valley, is expected to play a key role in finalizing the party’s strategy for the polls. (KNO)

Srinagar: The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Tuesday announced the schedule for biennial elections to the Council of States (Rajya Sabha) from the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir.

According to a notification issued by the poll body, a copy of which is in possession of KNO, the Commission will issue the notification for these seats on October 6.

It further states that the last date for filing nominations is October 13, while scrutiny of nominations will take place on October 14.

Voting will be held on October 24 between 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM, the notification states. The counting of votes will take place on the same day at 5:00 PM.

The four Rajya Sabha seats—previously held by Mir Mohammad Fayaz, Shamsher Singh, Ghulam Nabi Azad, and Nazir Ahmed Laway—have remained vacant since their retirement in February 2021.

The delay in holding elections was attributed to the absence of a valid electorate following the bifurcation of the erstwhile state into two Union Territories: Jammu & Kashmir (with legislature) and Ladakh (without legislature), under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019.

With the recent constitution of the Legislative Assembly in Jammu & Kashmir, the required electoral body is now in place, paving the way for elections to fill the long-pending vacancies.

The Commission clarified that the four seats will be filled through three separate elections—one each for the members who retired on February 10, 2021, and a combined election for the two who retired on February 15, 2021.

The ECI’s decision aligns with a 1994 Delhi High Court ruling, which upheld the practice of holding separate elections for seats categorized distinctly from inception.

The tenure of the newly elected members will be subject to the outcome of a pending Supreme Court case—SLP(C) No. 17123/2015 (Election Commission of India vs. Devesh Chandra Thakur & Others). (KNO)