Srinagar: A comprehensive risk assessment plan for Kishtwar district has warned that ongoing hydroelectric projects in the region face high risk due to threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) events.
A copy of a report prepared by District Disaster Management Authority Kishtwar, accessed by KNO states: “Major projects under Chenab Valley Power Projects Limited (CVPPL) — including Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Dangduru — are vulnerable to potential GLOF events. “
It states that rising water levels or a possible breach of dams could severely damage project infrastructure, disrupt operations, and heighten the flood risk downstream.
The report further highlights the risks to Kishtwar’s vital road network. GLOFs could wash away key access routes, making transportation and evacuation impossible during emergencies. This isolation of communities in a crisis would significantly hamper relief and rescue operations.
Beyond infrastructure, the environmental stakes are equally high. The Kishtwar High Altitude National Park — home to rare flora and fauna — faces potential ecosystem disruption, habitat degradation, and biodiversity loss due to such glacial disasters.
The DDMA has stressed the need for proactive measures, including continuous monitoring of glacial lakes, strengthening of disaster preparedness, and integration of climate risk assessments into developmental planning.
Pertinently, the GLOF Management Plan prepared by DDMA outlines the strategies for identifying; assessing and mitigating the risks associated with Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in vulnerable regions. It emphasizes early warning systems, community preparedness, and infrastructural resilience to minimize damage to life, property, and the environment.
The plan also integrates disaster response mechanisms for efficient resource allocation during emergencies. Through coordination between Government bodies, Scientific institutions, and local communities, the plan aims to enhance overall risk reduction and adaptation to climate change impacts.
GLOFS POSE THREAT TO DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES
The DDMA report further states: “The Kishtwar Himalayas have witnessed significant glacial lake expansion in recent decades, largely driven by global warming. As glaciers in the region retreat, new glacial lakes form and existing ones expand, heightening the risk of GLOFs. These events pose an increasing threat to downstream communities in Kishtwar, where vulnerable populations and infrastructure are at risk.”
“The glaciers in the Kishtwar region are crucial to understanding the area’s susceptibility to GLOFs. Recent reports, including those from CWC, NRSC, IIT Bombay, University of Jammu and University of Kashmir have highlighted the rapid loss of glacial mass in the Chenab River Basin due to climate change,” it states.
“This loss is of particular concern because many of the newly formed glacial lakes are held behind unstable moraine dams, which can fail catastrophically under stress from increased water levels, seismic activity, or further glacial retreat. The ongoing expansion of these glacial lakes not only exacerbates the risk of GLOFs but also underscores the urgent need for regular monitoring and risk mitigation strategies to protect communities in the Kishtwar region,” the report adds.
EXPANSION OF MUNDIKSAR LAKE IN 40 YEARS
The report points out expansion of Mundiksar Lake in last 40 years. “The GLOFs present a significant hazard to Kishtwar District, particularly impacting the tehsils of Padder, Machail, Dachhan, Marwah, and Warwan, along with areas near the Kishtwar High Altitude National Park,” it adds
“These regions are especially vulnerable due to their proximity to glacial lakes, making them prone to sudden flooding events that can have devastating impacts on local communities, infrastructure, and the environment,” the report states, adding, “Key infrastructure in Padder, Machail, Dachhan, and Marwah tehsils—including roads, government buildings, schools, and hospitals are at considerable risk.”
MARWAH AND WARWAN, SHADOW AREAS
The tehsils of Marwah and Warwan, often designated as “Shadow Areas” due to their remoteness, houses low-lying settlements and agricultural communities that face increased vulnerability due to limited disaster preparedness and emergency response capacities.
Contamination of local water sources due to floodwaters could further impact public health and ecological balance. Mitigating these risks requires comprehensive flood management and preventative strategies to protect the district’s population, infrastructure, and natural resources from the severe impacts of GLOFs.
RISK ASSESSMENT
The risk of GLOFs in Kishtwar arises from the combination of natural factors and climatic conditions that influence glacial lakes’ behavior, report states. It states that the following components form the basis of the GLOF risk assessment for the region: Glacial-Retreat-and-Lake-Formation: “The glaciers in the Kishtwar Himalayas are retreating at an accelerated pace due to rising temperatures, leading to the creation of new glacial lakes.”
“Existing lakes are also expanding, increasing the water volume held behind unstable moraine dams. Lakes such as Mundiksar Lake and Hangu Lake, both classified as high-risk, are prime examples of expanding lakes in this region. This expansion heightens the potential for catastrophic dam failure.”
It states: “Many glacial lakes are formed behind moraine dams, which consist of unconsolidated glacial debris. These natural dams are prone to failure due to their unstable structure. Factors such as increased water pressure from lake expansion, earthquakes, or heavy rainfall can lead to sudden breaches, causing GLOFs. Lakes like Patla Pani Lake categorized as moderate-risk, are also susceptible to GLOFs if their moraine dams fail. c)Seismic-Activity-and-Landslides: Kishtwar lies in a seismically active region Zone (IV), making the moraine dams more vulnerable to collapse during earthquakes.”
LANDSLIDES CAN DISPLACE LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER
“Additionally, landslides triggered by seismic events or monsoon rains can displace large amounts of water, leading to overtopping and dam failure. The steep terrain of the region exacerbates the risks associated with GLOFs, as floodwaters can travel swiftly through narrow valleys, causing widespread damage downstream,” it states.
CHENAB RIVER SENSITIVE TO CHANGES
The report states: “The Chenab River, fed by glaciers and glacial lakes, is sensitive to changes in the region’s hydrology. As lakes expand, there is an increased risk of sudden outflows, which could impact the river’s course and flood surrounding areas.”
“Changes in the water balance of these glacial lakes are continuously monitored, but sudden shifts in water volume due to rapid melting or lake outbursts could lead to devastating floods,” it adds.
“The Kishtwar District, located within the Chenab River Basin, is particularly vulnerable to GLOFs due to the presence of multiple glaciers and glacial lakes formed from glacial retreat. The accelerated retreat of glaciers, driven by climate change, has resulted in the formation and expansion of several glacial lakes in the region, increasing the risk of GLOFs,” it states.
COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT, MITIGATION PLAN CRITICAL
The report states that a comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation plan is critical to safeguard the lives, property, and infrastructure of downstream communities in Kishtwar. A multi-layered mitigation strategy is essential for minimizing the impacts of GLOF events in the district. It states that to minimize the impact of GLOF events a regular-monitoring-and, early warning-systems need to be put in place.
“Continuous monitoring of high-risk glacial lakes is critical for early detection of any significant changes in water volume or dam stability. The Central Water Commission (CWC) and other agencies should expand the use of satellite-based remote sensing technologies, such as Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 imagery, to track glacial lakes and assess potential hazards. Installing automated sensors to monitor lake water levels and dam conditions in real-time can enhance early warning capabilities” report states.
“Establishment of Early Warning Systems (EWS) should include collaboration with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) to predict weather conditions that could trigger GLOFs. These systems will enable authorities to issue timely alerts to vulnerable communities and ensure evacuation measures are in place,” the report states.
“In cases where glacial lakes pose an imminent threat, engineering interventions should be considered. These include: -Controlled drainage of high-risk lakes to reduce the pressure on moraine dams. This can be done by creating artificial channels or tunnels to release excess water in a controlled manner.
Reinforcement of moraine dams using structural materials to stabilize them and prevent collapse. Where feasible, geotechnical studies should be conducted to assess dam stability and determine the most effective reinforcement methods.”
RISK-MAPPING-AND-VULNERABILITY-ASSESSMENT
The report suggests: “The DDMA in collaboration with all the stake holders should conduct a comprehensive risk mapping of the region to identify areas most vulnerable to GLOF events. This should include detailed assessments of downstream communities, critical infrastructure (such as roads, bridges, and power plants), and agricultural areas that could be affected by floodwaters. Areas identified as high-risk should be prioritized for disaster preparedness measures, including the creation of buffer zones and evacuation routes.”
“Local communities in Kishtwar must be educated about the risks of GLOFs and trained in emergency response. Regular awareness campaigns should be conducted to inform residents about warning signs of GLOFs, evacuation procedures, and how to respond during a flood event or other events caused by GLOF(s),” it adds. (KNO)
